Poland has long been a key player in Europe’s tobacco industry. As the largest exporter of tobacco products in the European Union, the country’s economy is deeply tied to the success of the sector. However, in recent years, Polish tobacco farmers and manufacturers have faced significant hurdles, from rising costs to shifting consumer preferences. While traditional tobacco is struggling, a new wave of nicotine alternatives—especially vapes and heated tobacco—presents an opportunity for industry growth.
A Declining Tobacco Harvest: What’s Happening?
Poland’s tobacco farmers have had a tough run over the past few years. According to Lukas Szymanski, owner of Solidus Tobacco, rising operational costs—especially energy and labor—have put immense pressure on growers. “We’ve seen a systematic decline in Poland’s tobacco farming,” he explains. “Farmers are facing increasing difficulties due to labor shortages and skyrocketing energy costs.”
Szymanski has been in the tobacco trade since 2015, supplying raw tobacco to European markets. However, seeing the challenges in the EU, he recently expanded operations to the Middle East, where demand remains strong. This shift reflects a broader trend: Polish tobacco businesses are looking beyond Europe for growth.
A major reason for this pivot is weakening demand within the EU. “Tobacco purchase prices in Poland haven’t increased in years,” Szymanski notes. “This has discouraged many farmers from continuing tobacco cultivation. In 2022, Polish tobacco sales were almost half of what they were in 2016.”
And the road ahead doesn’t look much smoother. According to Marcin Krymczyk, president of the Polish Tobacco Workers’ Association, controversial EU policies may further erode Poland’s competitive edge in the sector. Polish tobacco companies have urged the government to step in and protect the industry. As Marek Kowalski, president of the Polish Entrepreneurs’ Association, warns, “If EU regulations push Polish businesses out of the market, foreign competitors will dominate.”
One particularly pressing issue is the fate of nicotine pouches, a product category in which Poland is a global leader. Zbigniew Jankowski, a spokesperson for Swedish Match, highlights the risk: “If the EU follows the World Health Organization’s recommendations and bans the sale of nicotine pouches, it will devastate the industry. Entire companies could collapse, and thousands of jobs would disappear.”
Tobacco’s Economic Power: A Vital Revenue Source for Poland
Despite the decline in raw tobacco production, the broader tobacco sector remains a major economic driver in Poland. Tobacco-related taxes contribute around 8% of the country’s total tax revenue annually.
According to Euromonitor International, Poland’s cigarette sales volume in 2023 dropped by less than 1%, but thanks to price hikes, total sales revenue still grew. Interestingly, one unexpected factor driving cigarette sales has been the influx of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are smokers.
However, the real growth story isn’t traditional cigarettes—it’s the rise of next-gen tobacco alternatives, including vapes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches. “The market for disposable vapes is exploding,” says Euromonitor analyst Lina Sydorenko. “Meanwhile, cigars remain steady, but imports have declined due to rising demand in Asia and the U.S.”
Poland has also cracked down on illegal tobacco sales. “Just a few years ago, smuggled cigarettes—mostly from Belarus and Ukraine—were a major problem,” says Sydorenko. “But in 2023, illegal cigarettes accounted for less than 5% of total sales, thanks to stronger border controls and law enforcement efforts.”
New-School Nicotine: Vapes and Heated Tobacco Are Taking Over
With traditional tobacco facing regulatory and economic challenges, the future of Poland’s nicotine industry increasingly lies in alternative products.
“Sales of heated tobacco products have grown steadily for the past five years and now make up around 11% of Poland’s tobacco market,” says Adrian Jablonski, Public Affairs Director at Japan Tobacco International Poland. The company has invested over $200 million in Polish factories to produce heated tobacco sticks, signaling a strong belief in the market’s future.
For now, heated tobacco enjoys looser regulations compared to traditional cigarettes. While the EU has pushed for stricter rules—especially regarding flavored products—Poland has yet to enforce a ban on flavored heated tobacco. Jablonski is optimistic: “The market always adapts to regulation. We’re prepared to continue innovating.”
However, the real disruptor in Poland’s nicotine market is vapes. Disposable vapes, in particular, have surged in popularity, especially among younger consumers. “It’s no surprise—vapes are more convenient, less harsh, and come in a variety of flavors,” says Sydorenko.
But this rapid growth has caught the attention of regulators. In February 2024, Poland’s Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna announced plans to ban disposable vapes, citing concerns over youth vaping. “Around 64% of young people in Poland have tried disposables,” she claimed. “We need stronger measures to keep them away from vapes.”
This potential ban has triggered fierce debate. Critics argue that banning disposables could fuel a black market and drive consumers toward unregulated products. Others point out that not all vapes are the same—and that Poland should focus on harm reduction rather than outright prohibition.
Why Free-Nicotine Vapes Could Be the Future
As Poland wrestles with vaping regulations, one potential solution is free-nicotine vapes—devices that offer the same sensory experience as traditional vapes but without addictive nicotine.
These products have gained traction in markets like the U.S., where a growing number of consumers are looking for smoke-free alternatives that eliminate nicotine dependency. “Free-nicotine vapes give people the ritual of vaping without the risks associated with nicotine addiction,” explains harm reduction expert Dr. Mark Reynolds. “They can be an effective tool for smokers who want to transition away from nicotine altogether.”
By embracing free-nicotine vapes instead of banning disposables outright, Poland could strike a balance between public health concerns and industry innovation. This approach would allow vape businesses to continue operating while offering consumers a less addictive alternative.
The Road Ahead for Poland’s Tobacco Industry
The coming years will be pivotal for Poland’s nicotine market. Traditional tobacco is on a downward trajectory, with farmers and cigarette manufacturers facing growing challenges. Meanwhile, vapes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches represent the next frontier.
If Poland follows through with a disposable vape ban, it could shake up the market, but consumers are likely to adapt—either by switching to reusable vape devices, heated tobacco, or possibly free-nicotine vapes.
Poland has an opportunity to lead the EU in progressive harm reduction policies rather than falling behind with outdated prohibitions. By focusing on regulated, reduced-risk alternatives, the country could maintain its status as a nicotine industry powerhouse while also addressing public health concerns.
One thing is certain: the nicotine market is evolving fast, and Poland needs to keep up.
